Plausible Electoral College Tie?

CNN’s web site has an electoral college map widget that lets you set states red or blue. Starting with the 2004 results, I changed New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa to the Obama column (all leaning that way based on polls), and changed New Hampshire to the McCain column (a tossup). This amazingly plausible electoral result produces a 269-269 tie.
269-269 Electoral College Tie
In the result of a tie outcome like this, the electors themselves do not necessarily adhere to their pledged candidates. However, if they do, the race is decided by the House of Representatives, but not by individual votes from each representative: each state gets one vote. California with its 53 representatives gets the same say as Wyoming with its 1. Because Republicans control the more numerous small states and Democrats the less numerous, heavily-populated, states, this would result in a McCain presidency. More recent and complete analyses here and here make it seem that a tie would more likely end with Obama (or Biden!) in the White House.

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Planetary Scientist and Asst. Professor of Physics at University of Central Florida; Movie Buff; Trekkie; Jethro Tull fanatic; part-time actor, piano player, writer; and full-time husband and father.

One thought on “Plausible Electoral College Tie?”

  1. According to , the current House has 27 state delegations controlled by Democrats, vs 22 by Republicans. That favors an Obama victory, but for various reasons does not guarantee it. I do NOT vouch for the reliability of this website, though it is consistent with various other (links unfortunately forgotten) web discussions.

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