As a lifelong Trekkie I was very much looking forward to tonight’s Comedy Central roast of William Shatner, the man whose over-the-top portrayal of Captain James T. Kirk proved to be pitch-perfect in Star Trek. Surprisingly the roasters at times almost ignored Shatner, instead directing their vulgar insults-as-jokes at each other. This was a disappointment, especially when Shatner has done so many different things that are ripe for ridicule in this setting. His famous dramatic readings of songs (you’ve got to see this one) alone are a treasure trove of material for comics, but instead they were more interested in directing their barbs at fellow roasters George Takei and Andy Dick. Whether you like him or not, you gotta give credit to Shatner for being first in line to poke fun at himself. It was ironic at the conclusion of the roast tonight when he leveled the same criticism at the comics that I have: the most insulting thing is that they weren’t more funny when he had given them so much material to work with.
Archive for August, 2006
Shatner Roast Short on Shatner Roasting
Monday, August 21st, 2006Exponentials and You
Saturday, August 19th, 2006I finally saw Dr. Al Bartlett’s famous talk on population last night at the University of Colorado. Dr. Bartlett is a Professor Emeritus at CU in the Physics Department. He begins and ends his talk with the sad assertion that the greatest failing of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. You might think that if that is our greatest failing we’re doing pretty well. But that is exactly the problem. Exponential growth of any kind against a finite resource leads to a rather dramatic and unhappy conclusion. One example in Bartlett’s talk is a colony of bacteria that doubles in population every minute. Consider the bacteria in a sample dish that starts growing at 11:00 a.m. and fills the dish one hour later. If it doubles every minute, then that means the dish is half empty at 11:59 a.m., and only 1/16-th full at 11:56 a.m. In other words, four short doubling times before the bacteria are completely out of space, they would look around their dish and see only 6.25% of it occupied. It is unlikely they would be worried about space or resources. This is the consequence of growth at a steady rate (sounds friendly) which is the same as exponential growth (sounds scary): at 3.5% annual growth, things double in 20 years.
The U.S. population is just about to break 300 million and the world population is over 6.5 billion. The current world population growth rate is 1.14% according to the U.S. Census Bureau. If that rate held steady we would see a doubling to over 13 billion people by 2066. However, the Census Bureau projects a continuing decline in the growth rate due to lower fertility rates. Women, on average, need to have 2.1 babies in order for the population to remain stable. The current global fertility rate is 2.6. However, even if it immediately dropped to 2.1 the population would continue to grow for a generation or so as a large population of women matures into child-bearing age.
I found the population numbers overall less alarming than the fossil fuel inventory in Bartlett’s presentation. Here we have a clear case of exponential growth against a finite resource. There’s only so much oil, and usage continues to rise. According to Bartlett we now have reliable means of estimating the quantity of undiscovered oil reserves, those undiscovered reserves are factored into projections of oil consumption and reserves in the future. The production of oil in the U.S. peaked in 1971 and will continue to decline until we are out. Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, for example, will supply the U.S. with, get this, one extra year of oil consumption at the current rate. That’s kind of like those bacteria getting another second or so of growth past noon. Some projections of the oil production in the world can be found in this Wikipedia article. We may be at the world peak production right about now. Check out these projections (no longer available at the Department of Energy website; draw your own conclusions). I suppose it’s dangerous to link to a Wiki site that is by definition a moving target, but a search for “Hubbert Peak” should give you the same general picture: we’re running out of oil, and in a hurry. The world oil consumption is a little less than 2 liters per day per person. That’s about a half a gallon. Americans of course use far more than that on average.
I have to say I came away from the talk a little bit daunted. Driving less is a good idea, but we’re going to need a more radical change in the way we generate and use energy over the course of the next century. Ultimately, the Sun is our main viable long-term power source. Oil is merely a fancy way of storing solar energy (grow some plants, have dinosaurs eat the plants, die, decay and create a nice hydrocarbon reservoir for us). We need to start implementing some simpler dinosaur-less schemes for harvesting large amounts of all that free energy raining down on us from the Sun. It’s going to be interesting.
Planets and Plutons
Thursday, August 17th, 2006I guessed incorrectly about which way the IAU would go in adopting a new definition for “planet”. I thought they would take a more restrictive view that would dump Pluto from the ranks of the planets. Instead they have adopted for a more inclusive definition that is perfectly reasonable from a physical and scientific standpoint (basically: a big round thing that orbits the Sun). In detail:
1) A planet is a celestial body that (a) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (b) is in orbit around a star, and is neither a star nor a satellite of a planet.
(2) We distinguish between the eight classical planets discovered before 1900, which move in nearly circular orbits close to the ecliptic plane, and other planetary objects in orbit around the Sun. All of these other objects are smaller than Mercury. We recognize that Ceres is a planet by the above scientific definition. For historical reasons, one may choose to distinguish Ceres from the classical planets by referring to it as a “dwarf planet.”
(3) We recognize Pluto to be a planet by the above scientific definition, as are one or more recently discovered large Trans-Neptunian Objects. In contrast to the classical planets, these objects typically have highly inclined orbits with large eccentricities and orbital periods in excess of 200 years. We designate this category of planetary objects, of which Pluto is the prototype, as a new class that we call “plutons”.
(4) All non-planet objects orbiting the Sun shall be referred to collectively as “Small Solar System Bodies”.
I like (1) and (4). I don’t like (2) and (3). Point (2) qualifies the definition based on historical considerations, while point (3) introduces both vague (”highly inclined” and “large eccentricities”) and arbitrary boundaries (200 years). These points seem particularly parochial in a time when most things we think of as planets are actually orbiting stars other than the Sun. While a 200 year orbit neatly separates tiny Pluto from giant Neptune in our system, there are certainly going to be planetary systems where that boundary might fall between two very similar and large planets, like Uranus and Neptune. Where does this leave “Kuiper Belt Objects” with respect to “Plutons”? Are only the large KBOs to be considered Plutons? Why not just call them planets without introducing another taxonomic classification? What is the distinguishing characteristic of a “dwarf planet”? Why isn’t Mercury a dwarf planet?
I guess that the IAU deliberately chose to be vague with the wording, “one may choose to distinguish Ceres … by referring to it as a ‘dwarf planet’”. In that case, I’ll choose not to make that distinction and continue referring to it as an “asteroid”. I’m fine with it being an asteroid that is also a planet. Now it’s an asteroid, a planet, and a dwarf planet, while Pluto is a planet, a pluton and a Kuiper Belt Object.
I cannot see myself using the term “Pluton” in my introductory astronomy classes (or anywhere else for that matter), and I see no pedagogical or scientific benefit in referring to Ceres as a dwarf planet rather than an asteroid.
For more details on the IAU decision, and why Pluto’s largest moon is also now a planet, see the Bad Astronomy blog.
Saturn’s “Strange” Ringlet
Wednesday, August 16th, 2006While the IAU has decided on a definition of “planet”, that body of astronomers might want to consider the almost embarrassing lack of names for Saturn’s many rings. Within the main ring system of Saturn are many small, distinct ringlets. A few of them, like the Huygens ringlet, have names. In this recent Cassini image of the Huygens ringlet (inside the Huygens Gap, of course), you can see another narrow ringlet that I happen to have a particular grudge against. This narrow fellow, nicknamed the “strange ringlet” by some in the Cassini Rings Working Group, appears not to go all the way around Saturn. While it looks perfectly ordinary in the image above, in my observations of stellar occultations by the rings, this ringlet appears sometimes, but not all the time. Some images also seem to show the ringlet disappearing. This is pretty unusual behavior for planetary rings, and might be a clue to the existence of a new moon embedded within the rings. I got excited last year that our data might show that it is an inclined, eccentric ringlet, passing over the main rings at some points in its orbit. But this idea is too simple to explain all the observations. It may be inclined and eccentric, but it has some additional wrinkles that we will have to figure out. Maybe by then we’ll also have a proper name for it.
Little Miss Sunshine
Tuesday, August 15th, 2006It’s hard to say too much about the plot of this movie without ruining some of the surprises and discoveries along the way, so I will be a bit vague. The movie in essence follows a family on a road trip from Albuquerque to Los Angeles so that their 7-year-old daughter Olive can participate in the Little Miss Sunshine beauty pageant. The family consists of Olive, her 15-year-old brother Dwayne, her grandfather, her parents, and her mother’s brother Frank. Dwayne is nine months into a vow of silence that will only end when he gets into the Air Force Academy so he can fly jets. Frank (Steve Carell), the country’s leading Proust scholar, is out of the hospital early following a suicide attempt. The grandfather, played with gusto by Alan Arkin, cuts through the familial crap, especially the relentless “we’re winners” speeches from his son, Olive’s dad. The mother has enough to do just trying to keep things together. Olive herself is a cute little girl who certainly seems too normal for a pre-teen beauty pageant. Their cross-country trek, in an old VW bus, is eventful. I don’t want to spoil it by being too specific. Most of the events are unpleasant, yet the family becomes stronger for them in a believable way. The movie is funny, touching, and real.
Have a Josh Colwell with Dinner
Monday, August 14th, 2006Next time you’d like a cool, refreshing, and delicious beverage, why not try a Josh Colwell? A Josh Colwell is half lemonade, half Coca-Cola (though Pepsi can be substituted in a pinch). The Josh Colwell is inspired by the German spezi. I order it by name, though it can be a bit embarrassing if I’m paying by credit card. No one else will have that problem, of course. Like its cousin, the Arnold Palmer, a Josh Colwell has some caffeine in a tasty, lemony blend. Want a little more oomph? Have your Josh Colwell “dark” (more coke). Prefer the lemon flavor? Have it “light”. Of course, you can also order a diet Josh Colwell if you’re counting calories. Remember, order it by name. And if anyone asks who Josh Colwell is, you can just say he’s the actor in “Deep Impact” who made the drink famous.
Disproportionate Representation
Sunday, August 13th, 2006Driving across the wild and sparsely populated states of Montana and Wyoming the last couple of days drove home for me the electoral inequity of our system of representational government. The electoral college and the allocation of two senators per state, regardless of the population of those states, give the less populated states enormously greater influence over the makeup of the senate (and the resident of the White House) than the most populated states. In the 2004 election, for example, when the Republican majority in the Senate increased from 51 to 55, the nation as a whole voted for Democratic candidates by a margin of over 4 million votes cast. That is a larger margin of victory both in absolute and relative numbers than Bush enjoyed in 2004 in winning re-election (while, election, anyway). So, while a solid majority of Americans voted for Democrats in the Senate, the Senate became strongly Republican. Wyoming, which we traversed today, is the least populous state with just about half a million inhabitants. California, the most populous at over 36 million, has more than 70 times as many people. 180,000 Wyoming residents voted in their last Senatorial election in 2002, while 12 million Californians voted for Senator in 2004. That ratio of voters gives the Wyoming voter almost 67 times as much representation in the Senate as the California voter. The Senate was, in fact, intendend to be non-representational. Even the original 13 states had a variety of populations so that voters in some states were in essence over-represented while those in the larger states were under-represented. However, it is certainly worth bearing in mind that the make-up of the Senate does not necessarily reflect the views and values of the majority of Americans. Given the amount of private money spent on re-election campaigns in the House of Representatives and more than 90% of incumbents winning re-election, that body while proportionately more representative, is also probably not idealogically representative of Americans as a group. Indeed, as Michael Moore and many others have pointed out, when polled most Americans align themselves with the values and platform of the Democratic Party. As just one example of many, Americans overwhelmingly favor a universal health care system. Yet we have a government that is beholden to private insurance companies and drug companies whose primary responsibility is to shareholders, not patients.
Trek Inspirational Posters
Friday, August 11th, 2006Just a quick post from the road in Montana: a friend passed along the link to these amusing posters for all of us who love Star Trek.
Rings and Glaciers
Wednesday, August 9th, 2006The Cassini Rings Working Group meeting this week is a wonderfully focused discussion among the mission’s ring scientists about virtually every aspect of Saturn’s rings. It’s great fun and a fascinating exchange of ideas about one of the coolest features of the solar system. This is a very focused set of nerds. In between meetings we have had a chance to visit nearby Glacier National Park. From our brief glimpse of this magnificent landscape, we are eager to return with more time to explore. A fire is currently raging on the eastern slopes in the park, and the cloud of smoke towered high overhead when we got to the Continental Divide at Logan Pass. That was enough to convince Anne-Marie that we should do our hiking at lower elevations on the western side. On our return I’ll be posting links to pictures. One thing that struck me was the obvious signs of millions of years of geologic forces at play, from the channels carved by flowing water to the sculpted shapes of the mountains themselves by glacial flow, and the slanted slabs of sedimentary rock soaring to 10,000 feet. It is hard to imagine anyone looking at this and believing that the Earth is 6000 years old.
Conservative Tactic: Accuse Others of Treason
Monday, August 7th, 2006The ridiculous bumper sticker accusing liberals of wanting more troops to die in Iraq and democracy to fail there is but one of countless examples of a tactic employed by conservatives to explain many policy failures: they’ve been stabbed in the back by other Americans. Another example: Sean Hannity’s book equating liberalism with terrorism and despotism in the title. This odious tactic is well-documented and beautifully described in this recent article in Harper’s.