The 2012 Nonsense

May 1st, 2010

It is an occupational hazard of an astronomer to be asked about the supposed catastrophe(s) in the year 2012. Usually people want to know about the effects of the alignment of the planets in that year. Sometimes, prompted by the movie 2012, they mention neutrinos. Even if they don’t think the world will end, they are surprised when I tell them that there is no planetary alignment in 2012, and uncomprehending when I point out that it would not make a bit of difference if there were.

Here is a movie of where the 8 major planets are from 2000 through 2050 (click the link to open and play the movie; use the controls to scroll through and pause on any year, displayed at lower left).
Motion of the Planets from 2000 to 2050
Notice how closely spaced the four inner planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars) are compared to the outer four. Notice also the frenetic pace of the inner planets. Clearly it’s not too rare for Earth and its terrestrial neighbors to be roughly lined up simply because they are all orbiting the Sun relatively quickly. And just as clearly, with its 165-year orbital period, Neptune (the triangle on the right side of the movie) is not very frequently in line with the rest of the planets. There is a much more impressive alignment of the planets, in fact, in 2010 than in 2012.

And just what are the implications of a planetary alignment? For the outer planets, it means skygazers will have a nice view of several planets each night, as they will all be up in the night sky at about the same time. That’s about it. If we tally up the ways planets could interact with us here on Earth, we come to a pretty short list:
- they reflect sunlight toward the Earth
- they have a gravitational effect on the Earth
Their magnetic fields do not extend to the Earth which is, anyway, enclosed in its own relatively strong magnetic field. The amount of sunlight coming to us from the planets is obviously puny and generally less than many stars.

For their gravitational influence, we can do a simple comparison. The gravitational acceleration exerted by an object on you or me is proportional to the mass of that object divided by the square of the distance between you or me and that object. So, for Jupiter, the most massive (and relatively nearby) planet, the gravitational acceleration you feel due to Jupiter’s presence is proportional to Jupiter’s mass (1.9 times 10^27 kg) divided by 3.9 times 10^25 meters squared. That gives us 48 in our units (where we are not worrying about the universal constant of gravitation since it will drop out when we make our comparison). Let’s compare that to, say, the acceleration you feel due to the gravitational influence of your spouse. If your spouse or significant other is a rather svelte 110 pounds (50 kg) and is sleeping 1 meter away from, then the gravitational acceleration you feel from that person is 50 divided by 1 squared, or 50, roughly the same value as the entire planet Jupiter. To pick a more dramatic example, when you stand next to your car, it is exerting a far greater influence on you (about 40 times greater) than all of the planets in the solar system. But then, you knew that, didn’t you?

The two astronomical objects that do produce a noticeable gravitational effect down here on the surface of the Earth are, not surprisingly, the Moon and the Sun. And when they line up it does have a measurable impact: the so-called “spring tides” or “full Moon tide” and “new Moon tide”. The gentle rising of the ocean up the beach every six hours or so is due to the tidal force of the Moon, and tides are simply due to the difference in the Moon’s gravitational pull across the body of the Earth. The Sun, although more massive, has a somewhat smaller effect on tides than the Moon because it is so much further away. But when the Sun and Moon are aligned (at full Moon and new Moon), their tidal effects combine and ocean tides are higher than usual. In the units we computed gravitational acceleration above, where Jupiter and the person standing next to you both rate about a 50, the Moon’s effect is about 460,000 and the Sun’s is 9 billion. The Earth does go around the Sun after all. (Tidal force depends on the derivative of gravity and so gets weaker with distance faster than gravity, hence the weaker tidal influence of the Sun than the Moon.)

So catastrophes in 2012 are likely to be restricted to homebound, terrestrial causes (hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, famine, drought, floods, and elections). The only sky-based catastrophe possible would be the impact of a comet. A catastrophic asteroid impact in 2012 is unlikely because we have much better advance warning for asteroids than for comets due to the shapes of their orbits (comets can sneak in from the outer solar system, while we have observed most dangerous asteroids).

Date Night

April 25th, 2010

The consensus among movie critics about Date Night seems to be that it is a big disappointment: Tina Fey and Steve Carrell are two of America’s funniest comic writers and actors, and here they are in a very ordinary comedy. Okay, maybe I’m using the word consensus a bit loosely, since I’m basing that on exactly two reviews, and both from New York at that (the Times and the New Yorker). But there’s a general tendency among movie critics to have a hard time appreciating movies that are not radically new and surprising. This probably has something to do with seeing a couple hundred movies a year, most of them crap, and most of the rest painfully familiar. Having been a 75-movies-a-year critic myself for a few years, I can empathize with those critics’ desire for true originality. I think it’s safe to say that unless you’re going to 100 movies a year or so, you’ll enjoy Date Night.

Carrell and Fey play a typical suburban couple with a couple of exhausting kids and an exhausting routine that finds them in a rut, the spark and romance sapped from their daily lives. The news that their friends are divorcing motivates them to go on a date at a trendy new restaurant in Manhattan. What follows is, to be sure, a relatively formulaic fish-out-of-water comedic plot, featuring the hapless couple on the run from gangsters for a madcap night of ridiculous adventures in Manhattan. But it does have an intelligent edge, and even the big preposterous gags are funny. Mark Wahlberg’s character never appears without a shirt, something that seemed to annoy the New York critics who mysteriously failed to recognize that that was a satirical comment on genre movies with hunks like Wahlberg showing off their buff bods. Carrell even finishes by begging Wahlberg to put on a shirt, using up the PG-13-rated Date Night’s one allotment for an F-bomb in the act.

Fey and Carrell are believable as a long-married couple, but more important, they are believable as an intelligent and witty couple saddled with the weight of routine. In addition to Wahlberg, Ray Liotta, James Franco and Kristen Wiig have funny bit parts. While Date Night does not break comedic ground, why should it have to? It’s simply funny.

The Runaways

April 16th, 2010

Somewhere in The Runaways, the story of the pathbreaking all-girl rock band in the mid-1970s, are a few photons that were reflected off my daughter Aylia, who spent a day as an extra on the film. Sadly, those photons are indistinguishable from a blurry background. Nevertheless, the movie, starring Kristen Stewart as Joan Jett and Dakota Fanning as Runaways singer Cherie Currie, was an interesting an entertaining tale of an overlooked part of rock history. While Jett has continued as the lead singer, songwriter, and guitarist of Joan Jett and the Blackhearts, Currie has been in and out of music, done some acting, and has frequently been out of show business since leaving the Runaways in 1977. The movie is at least as much Currie’s story as it is Jett’s, and in fact is based on Currie’s autobiography, Neon Angel: The Cherie Currie Story.

The young women of the Runaways are promoted by producer Kim Fowley, a flamboyant loudmouth who pushes Currie to flaunt her sexuality. While Fowley fantasizes about the Runaways being as transformative as the Beatles, as portrayed in the movie, he irresponsibly pushes them, exploits them, and foments controversy within the band. Not surprisingly, drugs become a major part of their lives. One wonders what might have become of the band had they had a producer like the Beatles’ George Martin instead of the narcissistic and irresponsible Fowley.

The movie is directed by Floria Sigismundi in her feature debut. Her inexperience shows perhaps in a general lack of sense of place or passage of time in the movie. When the girls are on the road playing concerts in dives, we don’t get a feel for where they are. On tour in Japan, it feels like LA with asian extras (the cars are shown driving on the right, unlike Japan’s left-side driving, for example). But she does an excellent job of capturing the mood of the girls, their band, and drawing great performances out of Stewart and Fanning.

My Erdös-Bacon Number

April 3rd, 2010

My Erdös-Bacon number is 6. This is the sum of my Erdös number (4), which measures the number of degrees of separation I have, through authorship of academic papers, from prolific Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdös, and my Bacon number (2), which measures the number of degrees of separation I have, through movie roles, from American actor Kevin Bacon. My Bacon number is low courtesy of my role in the movie Deep Impact which features a large cast of many veteran actors. My connection to Bacon (or at least the first one I found) is via Maximilian Schell, who was in Telling Lies in America with Kevin Bacon. So Schell has a Bacon number of 1, and since I was in Deep Impact with Schell, I have a Bacon number of 2.

Figuring out my Erdös number required a bit more sleuthing, but was greatly aided by this website, provided by the American Mathematical Society, which will provide the Erdös number of any author in the database of math papers. The difficulty is that I am not in their database. So I made some guesses as to co-authors of mine who might be in their database. The first good hit was Frank Spahn, a dynamicist friend and colleague at the University of Potsdam who has an Erdös number of 5, giving me E=6 and and E-B number of 8. When I thought about other possible connections, though, I hit on Jeff Scargle, a mathematically inclined planetary scientist at NASA’s Ames Research Center. While I have not authored a paper with Jeff Scargle, I have with his Ames colleague, Jeff Cuzzi. Scargle is in the database with an Erdös number of 2, giving Cuzzi an Erdös number of 3, and me E=4.

Why does anyone care about these numbers? Well, most don’t. The idea of degrees of separation has been around for some time, and a game was created around the idea of finding the number of acting degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon. These calculations of degrees of separation are a way to quantify the “small world phenomenon” that posits that the human population is a network of connections where the number of links between any two individuals is small. The world of mathematical journals is sufficiently different, that even having an Erdös number and a Bacon number is fairly unusual. And since the whole connection concept is essentially a mathematical model, it seems fitting to have a small world number based on a mathematician. Paul Erdös wrote well over 1000 scholarly articles, so mathematicians used him as a root for degrees of separation in that particular world. My E-B number of 6 puts me one behind Brian Greene (5) and one better than Stephen Hawking and tied with Richard Feynman.

An Obama Decision I Absolutely Hate

March 31st, 2010

The announcement today by President Obama to direct federal agencies to begin opening vast tracts of offshore areas for oil exploration is exceedingly disappointing. The amount of oil: up to three years at current rates of consumption and two years worth of natural gas. Whoop-de-freaking-doo. The damage to the environment will last for decades, if it’s not irreversible. All that to postpone dealing with our oil problem by 2-3 years.

Green Zone

March 19th, 2010

Green Zone, which brings together reunites Bourne director Paul Greengrass and Matt Damon, has some of the same gritty tension from the streets of Baghdad that made The Hurt Locker so gripping. But unlike Locker, which concentrated on the personal and battlefield experiences of a handful of soldiers, Green Zone is wrapped in a package designed to tell the story of the whole sorry mess of how we got into the war in the first place and how we got on the path that led Iraq to years of sectarian violence. It’s an ambitious goal for what is superficially an action movie, and if one accepts the simplifications of that story as legitimate artistic license, it is a goal that is pulled off quite neatly.

It is painful to watch Chief Warrant Officer Miller (Damon) and his team going into dangerous sites in and around Baghdad looking for the infamous Weapons of Mass Destruction that will never be found. In spite of pointed directives from his superiors that his is not to question why, his is but to dig and try, Miller wants to understand why the intelligence reports are consistently wrong. When an Iraqi informs him of a suspicious meeting of high-ranking Iraqi military in a nearby house, Miller takes part of his team “off the reservation” to go after a target that won’t turn out to be a figment of everyone’s imagination. This leads him into a power struggle between the cocky young mastermind of Iraqi reconstruction, Clark Poundstone (Greg Kinnear), an underling and proxy for Paul Bremer - the man behind the policy of de-Baathification, and one wizened CIA agent, played by Brendan Gleeson, who had the sense to see the turmoil that was about to ensue.

With Greengrass’s characteristic fast-moving handheld camera tracking chaotic chases and action, and Miller’s dogged pursuit of the truth behind the faulty intelligence reports, Green Zone manages to make you believe for a time that things might turn out differently. And it is smart enough at the same time to emphasize that even a different outcome, perhaps better by some standards, would have been a bloody, and a moral, mess.

Avatar v. The Hurt Locker

March 8th, 2010

I would not be surprised to see the experiment of an expanded list of Best Picture Oscar nominees come to a quick end. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, a body of about 6000 industry professionals that awards the famous statuettes, doubled the number of Best Picture nominees to 10 this year while leaving all other categories unchanged. The motivation, ironically, was to include blockbuster movies that are frequently pushed aside by those pesky unknown independent and low-budget movies the Academy voters tend to favor. Of course, the Academy was not really worried about blockbuster movies not getting enough attention. Their concern was declining ratings for the annual awards broadcast. Viewers are understandably less excited about awards going to movies they have never heard of, let alone seen. By nominating 10 movies for Best Picture the Academy reasoned that popular movies that would otherwise be snubbed by the hoity-toity Oscars would be included in the celebration and draw more people to watch the awards show. This seems to have worked: this year’s show was the most-watched Oscar-cast since 2005.

The extended list of nominees did include three popular movies that would otherwise have been overlooked: Up, The Blind Side, and District 9. Avatar, the all-time blockbuster, was nominated, but it would have been a lock to be nominated even in the original 5-picture format. And Up, an animated movie, was nominated for best animated picture, so its inclusion in the Best Picture nominee list did not really expand things. Of the remaining 6 Best Picture nominees, Inglourious Basterds cracked the $100 million mark, and Up in the Air had a respectable $83 million.

But Avatar is the elephant in the room. Visually groundbreaking and tremendous fun to watch, Avatar was the movie of 2009. While The Hurt Locker is a great movie, Avatar is a landmark movie and one that, like The Wizard of Oz, will be talked about for years, likely decades to come. By not giving Avatar the Best Picture Oscar, the Academy risks making itself seem even more elitist and disconnected from moviegoers. While we’ll never know, I believe that had their been only 5 nominees, as in years past, Avatar would have won. The reason is that to accommodate the expanded list of nominees, the Academy changed the voting procedure for Best Picture. Rather than voters simply selecting the one movie they would like to win, for Best Picture they ranked movies from 1 to 10. If less than 50% of the voters ranked any one movie at the top, the lowest ranking movie is eliminated, and the 2nd ranked movie on all the ballots that had the eliminated movie ranked first would then get tallied in a second round of voting. The process of eliminating from the bottom up continues until one movie is the top selection of more than 50% of the ballots.

The reason this might have tilted things away from Avatar is that even if a plurality of voters chose Avatar to win Best Picture (the only requirement necessary in years past), if a significant fraction of the other voters placed Avatar far down the list while The Hurt Locker ranked at number 2 or near the top of almost everyone’s list, The Hurt Locker would eventually come out on top. I think voters that did not want Avatar to win, really didn’t want it to win and so could effectively cast an anti-Avatar vote by ranking it low on their list. Meanwhile, nobody who saw The Hurt Locker would be actively against it winning. It’s a great, tense movie, and certainly in no way is it undeserving of winning Best Picture. Avatar, on the other hand, while in some ways a cliche, is, it’s fair to say, a film for the ages. The Academy is certainly not against giving Best Picture awards to big blockbusters. See Titanic (deserving), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (not so much). My guess: Avatar had a plurality of first-place votes on the first round of ballot-counting as well as a significant number of low-ranking votes from the stereotypical grumpy Academy member who was resentful of its success, irritated by its corny message, or determined to reward the excellent lesser known movies on the ballot. Avatar, after all, already has its billions, the thinking might have gone. Meanwhile, The Hurt Locker probably ranked in the top three on almost every ballot. So this year’s Best Picture winner might have been more of a consensus winner, while in years past a movie could theoretically have won with merely 20% plus 1 vote.

Na’vi Reproduction

February 25th, 2010

There’s a lot of chatter on the web following James Cameron’s assertion that the aliens in Avatar are “non-placental” and therefore have no biological need for breasts. But he wanted them to have them so they would be more attractive and less-alien-looking. Did I miss some part of Avatar where the Na’vi are shown to be non-mammalian? Why not just say they are mammals so the boobs make sense? Why pretend to make up some intricate alternate reproductive mechanism that is not represented by anything in the movie, and then go to contortions to explain something that is in the movie that would make perfect sense if they were mammalian?

Suborbital Researchers Conference

February 21st, 2010

The first Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference just concluded in Boulder, Colorado with a larger-than-anticipated turnout (250) including movers and shakers from NASA, the commercial launch industry, and the scientific community. The Conference was an interesting mix of programmatic presentations from NASA, which has proposed $15 million/year for research missions on commercial suborbital vehicles (think SpaceShipTwo from Virgin Galactic, or New Shepard from Blue Origin), presentations from the many companies involved in the commercial launch sector, and an eclectic mix of scientists and educators looking for ways to utilize this new capability to reach the lower bounds of space. By all accounts, including mine, the meeting was a resounding success. Which of course just raises the expectations for next year’s conference which is being organized by - wait a minute, this can’t be right: by me! So mark your calendars for February 28 - March 2, 2011, on the main UCF campus in Orlando for the second go-round. By then, commercial suborbital vehicles may be flying to space.

It’s Complicated

January 30th, 2010

Full disclosure: my brother was the First Assistant Director on this movie, and somewhere in the background of one scene is the back of my daughter’s head. Like many of Nancy Meyers’ movies (Something’s Gotta Give, The Holiday), It’s Complicated concerns the relatively uncomplicated problems of middle-aged people with beautiful houses, exquisite taste, and a bit of relationship trouble. Here, Jane (Meryl Streep) and Jake (Alec Baldwin) are the long-divorced parents of a trio of perfect children, the youngest of whom has just graduated, and another of whom is about to be married to Harley (John Krasinski). Jane has a classy bakery, while Jake has a classless younger wife, Agness, whose five-year-old son she had with another man while married to Jake. While Agness (yes, two s’s) drags Jake to fertility treatments to get another baby, he begins to long for the life he left behind. Just as Jane begins to entertain the idea (perhaps, post-mid-life crisis, she can reconnect with the Jake she first fell in love with), a less-complicated option in the form of Steve Martin’s architect, Adam, appears. Adam is designing a major addition to Jane’s already splendid Santa Barbara mansion. He is careful, quiet, and a bit unsure of himself, which is a fun casting against type of Martin, while Jake is brash, a bit reckless, and far more sure of himself than he probably should be.

Jane and Jake’s grown kids are confused by the sudden reappearance of their father in their mother’s life, and Jane is confused about her feelings for Jake and Adam, and Adam is confused about whether or not Jane is actually available. Jake, played with typical mischievous glee by Baldwin, is the one who seems pretty sure about what he wants, namely, to lose the complications of his young wife and her manipulative kid and regain the comfortable security of his original family. Krasinski, as the future son-in-law, provides a number of funny moments, and the movie garners an R rating for an extended scene where Jane and Adam are stoned at a party. It’s Complicated has a number of funny scenes and managed to keep me guessing about just how Jane, who is the central character of the movie, would decide to deal with her complications.